FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - After a volatile August, "the chances of a golden autumn for equities are good". According to investment expert Robert Halver from Baader Bank, investors are currently worried about missing out. "They are abandoning their defensive stance for fear of chasing the rally," said Halver. This pattern could persist at the start of September.
According to the chart technicians at Index-Radar, the potential for the remaining four months of the year has not yet been statistically exhausted. A target level of around 20,500 points is conceivable based on history. However, this seems a little too high to the chart experts, at least with a view to the coming weeks. In the short term, the DAX is "overheated" and they warned of a certain uncertainty factor with the US elections approaching. "In general, however, it is clear that strength usually brings further strength."
A few weeks ago, the DAX plummeted to 17,024 points in a panic-induced slump, bringing it even closer to its level at the turn of the year. According to Halver, many large investor groups quickly returned to the stock markets after August 5 and ensured a V-shaped recovery. The recession worries responsible for the brief slump were once again pushed into the background by investors. Speculation on the foreign exchange market, which had exacerbated the price slide, was also put to rest.
Investors are now focusing more on the prospect of future interest rate cuts, both in Europe and in the USA. In this respect, no wildfires are to be expected for the time being, as things will only get really exciting on September 12, when the European Central Bank decides on the interest rate level in the eurozone. The next decision by the US Federal Reserve is scheduled for September 18. In the next few days, however, some economic data is likely to become relevant for the Americans once again: in addition to the ISM purchasing managers' indices, this applies above all to the labor market report on Friday.
"The spectre of inflation in Europe is slowly fading," wrote Deka Bank chief economist Ulrich Kater on Friday after realizing that inflation in the eurozone is gradually reaching the central bankers' target range. The overall economic picture looks less rosy in this country. However, the combination of the two gives the European Central Bank both the necessity and the leeway to loosen its monetary policy further. It had already turned the interest rate screw once in June.
The situation in the USA is somewhat different, said Kater, who has observed a relatively robust economy there. However, this is also an advantage for European export stocks: "This strength in the world's largest economy is helping to keep global economic growth intact and will continue to support share prices worldwide," said Kater. Following the latest hints from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the expectation of a first interest rate cut in September is also strengthening in the USA. Experts expect the job market there to take over from the previous focus on price stability.
According to Baader expert Halver, a possible flashpoint for the stock markets would be if interest rate expectations turned out to be too euphoric. Higher volatility could then be expected again. Setbacks would then catch some investors on the wrong foot and could thus suddenly intensify the movement. "However, as has been the case recently, this air pocket would be quickly cleared".
On the corporate side, no further major impetus is expected in the new week. The tension is off here after the US chip giant Nvidia published its figures without disrupting the rally. On Wednesday evening, Deutsche Borse will review the composition of the most important indices on a regular basis. In the Dax, however, everything is likely to remain the same./tih/gl/he
--- By Timo Hausdorf, dpa-AFX ---