Admittedly, it was an easy target, as it was impossible to justify the valuation of this former SaaS (software as a service) star in view of its fundamentals and the usual warning signs: plummeting growth rates, prohibitive stock option remuneration, insider selling, etc. Another obvious warning sign, as we've seen in the past, is that Snowflake's valuation is not going to improve.
Another obvious warning sign, as we've already written here and there, was that Snowflake's operating loss only widened as the business expanded. Unfortunately, the situation has not improved in the first half of the current financial year: sales have risen by 31%, and the operating loss by 26%.
MarketScreener analysts have always had a penchant for growing companies - but profitable growth. However, there is still no sign of any change in this regard.
Stock option remuneration involves an expense of $688 million over six months, more than last year at the same time, and the improbable equivalent of 40% of sales. This is a very different direction from that of a comparable company such as Palantir, which used to indulge in similar excesses, but has been struggling for some time to prove its worth to the market, with some success.
As a result, Snowflake's valuation has taken another beating following the publication of its results at the end of last week. It now stands at x9 of expected sales this year, a tenth of the level - over x90 of sales! - reached a few weeks after the company's IPO. Naturally, the cyber-attack on its platform at the beginning of the summer did not help matters.
Some will choose to see the glass as half full, and why not? It would not be surprising to see Snowflake deliver at least $1 billion in free cash flow next year - if we take care, of course, to subtract stock options, and pretend they don't exist. As such, the share would currently trade at x35 this virtual profit.
The previous CEO, Frank Slootman, in any case, left the ship just as it was starting to rock, but of course without touching his stock options, which ensured him a staggering fortune. We salute his sense of timing. At least this IPO will have made someone rich.