In premarket trading, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures have inched up by 0.1%, while the Dow Jones is playing it cool, staying steady. The market turbulence that gave everyone a rollercoaster ride in early August seems to have calmed down. With the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium starting on Thursday, we might enjoy this calm until the end of the week. Then it'll be like halftime at a football game, but with fewer cheerleaders and more economic jargon. Futures are betting on a quarter-point rate cut next month, with a 30% chance of a more dramatic 50 basis point cut. The size of the cut will depend on upcoming data, so keep those economic reports handy.

The calendar for the next five days is as light as a feather, featuring only weekly jobless claims data and flash PMIs for August. This means Fed speakers might get more of the spotlight than usual. Over the weekend, U.S. policymakers Mary Daly told the Financial Times that it might be time to tweak borrowing costs from the current 5.25%-5.5% range, emphasizing the need to keep the labor market from taking a nosedive. Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic and Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr are scheduled to speak later today.

But let's go back to Jackson Hole. The name has appeared in countless articles on MarketScreener, and I've already written about many times since Friday. This year, the theme is captivating (sarcasm alert): "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy". Last year’s topic was equally riveting: ‘Structural changes in the global economy.’ But the real focus is on Jerome Powell. Investors are waiting for him to all but confirm a rate cut in September and possibly more to follow. He’ll likely sprinkle in warnings about inflation and the state of the U.S. economy. If he ditches his suit for cargo pants and a fleece, buy the Nasdaq; it means Jay Powell is truly at ease. Investors seem relaxed too, as the stock markets continued their ascent. The S&P 500 rose for the eighth consecutive session, gaining 1% to 5,608 points. It’s just 62 points shy of last month’s record. Almost all stocks were up, except for Estée Lauder, still struggling in the cosmetics sector.

Europe also rebounded, with consumer spending on the rise. Luxury goods and cars are driving the Old Continent’s recovery. The defense sector lagged as peace talks and budget constraints hit demand.

In economic news, Kamala Harris proposed raising the U.S. corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. In China, the central bank left its one-year and five-year rates unchanged at 3.35% and 3.85%, respectively, as expected. The PBOC had already surprised markets with a rate cut in July. Local bonds still bet on further easing as China’s economy struggles. The dollar and oil continued to fall, driven by the prospect of U.S. rate cuts and easing geopolitical tensions. In Australia, central bank minutes dashed hopes of a short-term rate cut due to persistent inflation. In the Asia-Pacific region, Tokyo rallied by 1.8% despite a stronger yen. China’s CSI 300 fell nearly 1%. South Korea’s tech sector buoyed the KOSPI by 0.8%. India and Australia showed moderate growth. European markets remain slightly down ahead of the big conference. 

Things to read today:

The German Producer Price Index and the Eurozone Consumer Price Index are today's main indicators. See the full agenda here.

The dollar is down to EUR 0.9020 and GBP 0.7684. The ounce of gold remains firm at USD 2,525. Oil is down, with North Sea Brent at USD 77.72 a barrel and US light crude WTI at USD 73.71. The yield on 10-year US debt is down to 3.86%. Bitcoin is trading at USD 60,000.

In corporate news:

  • Lowe's lowered its annual forecasts on Tuesday, citing weaker demand for furniture renovation. In its wake, The Home Depot fell sharply before the opening.
  • Eli Lilly said on Tuesday that its anti-obesity drug can reduce the risk of diabetes by 94% in patients with pre-diabetes or who are overweight, according to a long-term trial.
  • Johnson & Johnson - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved the pharmaceutical group's treatment against a form of lung cancer, Rybrevant. The group also announced the acquisition of V-Wave for $1.1 billion.
  • Tesla advanced before opening after the news that the European Union has lowered its tariffs on the group's electric cars manufactured in China to 9%.
  • Medtronic raised its outlook slightly in March, expecting increased demand for its medical devices and growth linked to new products.
  • Paramount - Edgar Bronfman Jr. made an offer of approximately $4.3 billion for the acquisition of the parent company of Paramount Global, National Amusements.
  • Alaska Airlines announced on Tuesday that its proposed acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines had resolved a regulatory hurdle with the U.S. Department of Justice. The airline had made an offer of $1.9 billion last year.

Analyst recommendations:

  • Antero Resources Corporation: Scotiabank upgrades to sector outperform from sector perform with a price target raised from USD 40 to USD 44.
  • Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc.: Bernstein upgrades to outperform from market perform with a price target raised from USD 94 to USD 110.
  • Jpmorgan Chase & Co.: Daiwa Securities upgrades to outperform from buy with a price target reduced from USD 243 to USD 240.
  • Range Resources Corporation: Scotiabank upgrades to sector outperform from sector perform with a target price of USD 45
  • Amd (Advanced Micro Devices): Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from 232 to USD 178.
  • Bath & Body Works, Inc.: Citigroup remains neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 48 to USD 35.
  • Bill Holdings, Inc.: JP Morgan maintains its overweight rating and reduces the target price from USD 80 to USD 60. 
  • Chewy, Inc.: Baird maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 26 to USD 32.
  • Corebridge Financial, Inc.: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from 24 to USD 33.
  • Estee Lauder: D.A. Davidson maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 191 to USD 130. 
  • Guidewire Software, Inc.: Oppenheimer maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 140 to USD 170.
  • Illumina, Inc.: Wolfe Research maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 135 to USD 165.
  • Deliveroo Plc: Grupo Santander upgrades to neutral from underperform with a price target raised from GBX 130.57 to GBX 143.22.
  • Hammerson Plc: Peel Hunt downgrades to hold from add with a target price of GBX 32.